9月东京CPI意外持平，支撑日本央行谨慎立场

Core Insights - Tokyo's consumer inflation rate remained unexpectedly stable due to temporary subsidy policies, supporting the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on interest rate hikes while not deviating from the overall upward path for rate increases [1][3] Inflation Data - The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, lower than the Bloomberg survey median expectation of 2.8% [1][3] - The "super core" inflation index, which excludes energy and fresh food, also increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the economists' expectation of 2.9% [3][4] Government Policies - Government subsidies aimed at alleviating rising living costs significantly impacted inflation data, leading to fluctuations in inflation trends [3] - The Tokyo city government expanded free childcare services, contributing a 0.3 percentage point drag on the inflation index, while a reduction in water fees further suppressed inflation growth [3][4] Energy Prices - Energy prices provided some support to the inflation index, with a year-on-year increase for the first time in three months, influenced by the base effect from last year's utility subsidy policies [3][4] Food Prices - Processed food prices rose by 6.9% year-on-year in September, down from 7.4% in August, indicating ongoing food inflation pressure [4] - Rice prices surged by 46.8% year-on-year in September, although this was a decrease from the 67.9% increase in August, raising concerns about future price stability [4] Political Context - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was influenced by public dissatisfaction with rising living costs, which played a key role in electoral defeats [5] - The upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election on October 4 will see candidates promising measures to alleviate household cost pressures [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain a 0.5% policy rate faced dissent, with some members advocating for a rate hike, leading to increased market speculation about a potential rate increase in the upcoming meeting [5] - The current sticky inflation environment suggests that the Bank of Japan may have conditions to raise rates, depending on the assessment of U.S. tariff policy impacts [5] Real Estate Market - The Tokyo real estate market is experiencing significant price increases, with the average price of family-type second-hand apartments in central Tokyo rising by 38% year-on-year to 107 million yen (approximately 719,700 USD) [5]