Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-09-26 02:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the direct equity allocation scale of wealth management products in 1H25 has reached a five-year low, while the scale of fund allocations has reached a five-year high, suggesting a need to consider indirect equity allocations. It is expected that with the steady increase in wealth management scale, the equity allocation will also rise, with a conservative estimate of over 100 billion yuan in additional equity allocations in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 [1]. Wealth Management Investment Scale - The wealth management product scale is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan in 2026. From January 2024 to early September 2025, the scale of wealth management products increased by 19% to 31.2 trillion yuan, with the number of products growing by 8% to 4.4 million. As of 1H25, the investment asset scale of wealth management products was 33 trillion yuan, with a semi-annual average increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. Assuming stable growth, the expected scales for 2025 and 2026 are 34.3 trillion yuan and 36.9 trillion yuan, respectively [1]. Product Perspective - The current status and changes in fixed income+, equity, and mixed-type wealth management products show that pure equity wealth management has a low proportion. The issuance of mixed and fixed income+ products has increased significantly since August, with mixed-type products rising by 12% and equity remaining stable. The number of new issuances for equity and mixed-type products increased by 19% and 57% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Underlying Asset Perspective - The allocation structure of wealth management underlying assets in 1H25 shows that equity allocation is at a near five-year low, while fund allocation is at a near five-year high. It is conservatively estimated that there will be over 100 billion yuan in additional equity allocations in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 [3][4]. Equity Allocation Estimates - The estimated equity allocation for wealth management products (excluding fund considerations) is projected to reach 816 billion yuan and 878.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The total scale of equity allocation is expected to increase by 457 billion yuan in 2025 compared to 1H25 and by 664 billion yuan in 2026 compared to 2025, totaling an estimated increase of 1.121 trillion yuan [5]. Investment Recommendations - The investment logic for bank stocks is shifting from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with bank stocks expected to remain attractive during periods of economic stagnation due to high dividends. Two main investment lines are suggested: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with stable high dividends [6][7].