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【大涨解读】风电:新政策预期强烈,国内外海风量价乐观,三季度有望进入全年高景气阶段
Xuan Gu Bao·2025-09-26 03:24

Market Performance - On September 26, the wind power industry rose over 2%, with Jixin Technology achieving a two-day consecutive limit-up, and Mingyang Smart Energy and Riyue Shares also hitting the limit-up [1] Stock Information - Jixin Technology (601218.SS) latest price: 5.67, up 10.10%, market cap: 54.94 billion [2] - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SS) latest price: 15.53, up 9.99%, market cap: 352.76 billion [2] - Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169.SS) latest price: 2.71, up 10.16%, market cap: 90.33 billion [2] Policy and Planning - China announced a new round of national contributions at the UN Climate Change Summit on September 24, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, wind power installations will accelerate, with an average annual increase of over 110 GW, reaching approximately 120 GW by 2028-2030 [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration have issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the wind power and new energy equipment industry [3] Industry Insights - It is expected that approximately 52 GW of nearshore projects will still need to be developed during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual installation of about 13 GW for nearshore wind power [6] - The domestic wind power construction has accelerated, with significant growth in offshore wind power grid connections expected in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - The trend towards larger wind turbines and the application of new technologies are expected to enhance profitability in the industry [6][8] Global and Domestic Market Outlook - The global offshore wind auction volume is expected to reach 56.3 GW in 2024, with an additional 100 GW of auction capacity anticipated in the next two years [6] - In the domestic market, the acceleration of offshore wind construction is expected to lead to a short-term performance realization period in Q3 [7] - The trend of large-scale wind turbines and the expansion into overseas markets are expected to enhance the profitability of wind power component manufacturers [8]