Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financing market is experiencing a "bull-bear divergence," with Wall Street strategists debating the potential for easing in the coming months, primarily driven by fluctuations in overnight borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Divergence - Multiple factors have contributed to the rise in U.S. short-term interest rates, creating the backdrop for the divergence. These include increased short-term bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury to rebuild cash reserves, which raises borrowing costs due to heightened demand for short-term funds [2] - The Federal Reserve's steady balance sheet reduction is tightening liquidity, further constraining the supply of funds [2] - The near-zero usage of the central bank's overnight lending facility indicates reduced reliance on the central bank, but also reflects uneven distribution of funds, potentially exposing some institutions to hidden gaps [2] Group 2: Contrasting Views from Major Banks - JPMorgan, led by Teresa Ho, advocates for easing, arguing that the market has overestimated the risks of rising financing costs, predicting a softening of overnight rates by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves buying December SOFR futures and selling equivalent federal funds futures, anticipating a narrowing of the current spread between SOFR (4.42%) and the 30-day federal funds rate (4.33%) [3] - Citigroup, under Jason Williams, takes a contrary stance, expecting financing costs to remain elevated or even rise by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves shorting December SOFR contracts relative to federal funds rates, predicting that SOFR will remain 4-5 basis points higher during favorable conditions [3][4] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Sentiments - Other institutions are also adjusting their positions, reflecting differing judgments. Barclays has shifted its stance, exiting a long position on SOFR relative to federal funds due to the normalization of rising financing costs [4] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, suggesting that liquidity pressures may ease by October, leading to a decline in financing costs, while American Bank adopts a flexible approach, closing short positions and recommending long positions on SOFR relative to federal funds for early 2026 [5] Group 4: Consensus on Liquidity Crisis - Despite significant divergence, there is a consensus among major banks that a liquidity crisis similar to the "cash crunch" of September 2019 is unlikely to recur. This is attributed to a more robust liquidity safety net, including the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) and overall sufficient bank reserves [6][7] - The current banking system's buffer capacity is stronger than it was before the 2019 crisis, and improved policy communication has reduced market uncertainty, allowing the focus to shift to interest rate levels rather than potential crises [7]
摩根大通 VS 花旗:华尔街掀 “融资暗战”,美国短期利率要涨至 2025?