ETO Markets 市场洞察：黄金暴跌还是暴涨？PCE通胀数据引爆多空“核爆”时刻！

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with gold at a critical juncture influenced by strong economic data and a rising dollar, alongside geopolitical conflicts and buying support [1] Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% from a previous 3.3%, and initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, exceeding expectations, which led to the dollar index reaching a three-week high [3] - A strong dollar puts direct pressure on gold, causing prices to briefly dip to $3722 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3749.18 per ounce, a 0.38% increase [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in October have slightly decreased from 90% to 85%, indicating a marginal impact of economic resilience on easing expectations [3] Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand - Despite hawkish economic signals, ongoing global geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, are elevating market risk aversion [4] - Domestic risks such as potential government shutdowns and new tariffs on heavy truck imports are also contributing to heightened market anxiety [4] - The combination of buying support during price dips and safe-haven demand is creating a strong floor for gold prices, making significant declines unlikely [4] PCE Inflation Data Significance - The market is awaiting the August core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% year-over-year rise [5] - Higher-than-expected inflation data could reinforce the notion of prolonged high interest rates, exerting significant pressure on gold prices, while softer data could bolster rate cut beliefs and push gold prices higher [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold is currently in a "seesaw" position, balancing between the pressures of a strong dollar and economic data against the support from geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations [7] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data release, with investors advised to closely monitor data performance, Federal Reserve officials' comments, and geopolitical developments, as these factors will shape the future trajectory of gold prices [7]