Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-26 05:35Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, global economic growth shows signs of recovery, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable. Household consumption accounts for 55.4% of global GDP, with private investment at 28.1% and government spending at 16.5% [1][10][12] - Major economies exhibit divergent performances: the US economy is recovering, Europe shows weak recovery, Japan faces growth pressures, India exceeds expectations, and Russia encounters challenges [1][10][12] Demand and Supply Analysis - On the demand side, uncertainties are increasing, particularly in the US, where consumer spending may weaken. The EU and Japan also show signs of consumer fatigue. However, US investment may receive a boost, while other economies' potential remains questionable [2][6][18] - On the supply side, manufacturing is recovering, and service sector expansion continues, although US employment risks need to be monitored. Global actual GDP growth is projected at approximately 2.4% for Q4 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 2.1% [2][6][18] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is stabilizing overall, with a projected global CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 and an annual rate of approximately 3.5%. The US faces a risk of inflation rebound, while other major economies experience a downward trend in prices [2][20][21] Trade and Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are experiencing a reduction in short-term impacts on global trade activities. The US has adjusted tariffs on various imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall tariff rate. However, uncertainties remain regarding the legality of these policies and potential protectionist measures from other countries [23][25][26] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 0.7% in 2025, influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors [23][25][26] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy stance. The US faces significant fiscal pressure, with a projected budget deficit of $2.911 trillion for the month of August, exceeding market expectations. The EU and Japan are also increasing their fiscal spending, focusing on defense and economic competitiveness [31][32][35][36]