今夜PCE会否撕毁市场全部预期？黄金正处关键时刻

Core Insights - The upcoming PCE inflation report is crucial as it is expected to show a slight increase in inflation rates, with the annual rate projected at 2.7% for August, up from 2.6% in July [2] - The core PCE, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to remain stable at 2.9% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][5] - Recent economic data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy despite tariffs, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [4][5] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The PCE report is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3% in August, compared to 0.2% in July, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer prices [2] - The report will be closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on goods prices and the recent rise in service costs [2][3] - Economic indicators such as a 20% increase in new home sales and a decline in initial jobless claims suggest a robust economic environment, which may complicate the Fed's dual mandate of supporting employment while controlling inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Expectations - Financial markets are pricing in an 85.5% chance of a rate cut in October, down from 92%, reflecting uncertainty surrounding inflation data [6] - A higher-than-expected inflation report could lead to market declines, as it may deter the Fed from further rate cuts [6][7] - Analysts express concerns that if inflation remains elevated, it could derail plans for significant rate reductions in the coming months [5][6] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve and a significant GDP revision have strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold prices [8] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face resistance around $3752, with potential declines if they fall below key support levels [8] - Despite the bearish sentiment, there remains a possibility for gold to test historical highs if it can maintain levels above $3800 [8]