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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly rate cuts, significantly impact global liquidity and financial markets, given the dollar's central role in the international monetary system [3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The core objective of a rate cut is to lower the "risk-free rate," which is typically represented by U.S. Treasury yields, thereby influencing the entire financial market through three main effects [6]. - Liquidity Effect: Rate cuts release liquidity, stimulating investment and consumption, although actual effects depend on the economic environment [7]. - Asset Pricing Effect: Lower risk-free rates increase asset valuations, as seen in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), where a decrease in the discount rate raises the intrinsic value of equities [8]. - Exchange Rate Effect: Rate cuts can lead to a depreciation of the dollar, prompting capital flows to higher-yielding emerging markets, although actual currency movements are influenced by various factors [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations play a crucial role; if investors anticipate a rate cut, the positive effects may already be priced in, leading to a muted market reaction post-announcement [12]. - The lag effect of monetary policy means that the impacts of rate cuts are not immediate, requiring time for the economy to adjust [13][14]. - Consumer behavior may shift as lower deposit rates encourage spending and investment, while businesses may take time to assess market conditions before increasing investments [15][17]. Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may have short-term upward potential, driven by a self-reinforcing cycle of rising stock prices leading to increased consumer spending and economic growth [19]. - However, the effectiveness of rate cuts in boosting the stock market depends on the economic cycle; in a recession, rate cuts may signal worsening conditions rather than improvement [19]. - For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the direct benefits of rate cuts include potential capital inflows, but market reactions may vary based on pre-existing expectations and structural economic issues [21][22]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The AI technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant potential for growth and innovation, despite broader market fluctuations [21][22]. - The competition in AI investment is likened to an arms race, indicating a robust trend that is likely to continue regardless of economic cycles or monetary policy changes [22].