日本央行前委员樱井诚预测：植田和男任内利率或至少再加息四次至1.5%

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate at least four more times to 1.5% before Governor Ueda's term ends in April 2028, with potential increases occurring by the end of this year and in the fiscal years 2026 and 2028 [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - A senior figure, Sakurai, predicts that the next interest rate hike could occur in October or December, depending on the resilience of corporate confidence and profits as indicated by the upcoming quarterly "Tankan" survey [1] - The Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January but has since maintained stability to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the economy [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Sakurai emphasizes that the current economic conditions in Japan are favorable, with large corporations benefiting from increased profits due to rising prices and yen depreciation [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustained impact of U.S. tariffs, as the Bank of Japan lacks sufficient hard data to make definitive judgments [1] Group 3: External Influences - External factors, such as the U.S. government's weak dollar policy, may exert pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [2] - The joint statement from the U.S. and Japan in September reiterated the principle of "market-determined exchange rates," interpreted as a warning for Tokyo to avoid intervening in the market to suppress yen appreciation [2] Group 4: Currency Trends - As the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase, a stronger yen against the dollar is anticipated, suggesting a potential trend of continued yen appreciation in the future [2]