美联储降息25个基点！对美股、港股、黄金有何影响？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a global easing cycle in 2025, which has significant implications for various asset classes [1]. Impact on U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, with all three major indices closing lower after an initial spike [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index had already risen by 2% in the ten trading days leading up to the meeting, indicating that the market had priced in the rate cut [4]. - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "risk management adjustment" aimed at addressing a weak labor market and potential economic downturn, historically leading to an upward shift in equity valuations [4]. Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a "rise then fall" pattern post-rate cut, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.13% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.42% [5]. - Despite the decline, there was a net inflow of over 5 billion HKD from southbound funds, indicating demand for undervalued assets [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also lowered rates to 4.5%, easing liquidity pressure and historically correlating with increased foreign capital inflow during Fed easing cycles [5]. Impact on Gold Market - Gold prices exhibited volatility, initially spiking to 3,744 USD/oz before retreating to around 3,670 USD/oz, with domestic gold prices adjusting to approximately 460 CNY/g [5]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive as the Fed's easing cycle typically leads to a downtrend in real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [7][8]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices may be influenced by a rebound in the dollar index and geopolitical stability [8]. Summary of Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on the potential for recovery in tech and consumer sectors in the U.S. and Hong Kong, while gold remains a strategic asset amid weakening dollar credibility [8].