高盛交易员：比特币“周一闪崩”是个“领先信号”

Core Viewpoint - The recent Bitcoin flash crash is seen as the first signal of a market shift, indicating a potential slowdown in the previous three weeks of risk asset rally [1][4][6] Market Conditions - The past three weeks experienced a significant rally in risk assets, with momentum trading yielding notable returns, but the pace is now changing [1][4] - Bitcoin's flash crash led to the forced liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions, impacting nearly all major cryptocurrencies [1] - Bitcoin's price fell below $110,000, currently trading around $109,000, with the $110,000 level identified as a critical technical support [1][4] Macro Environment - The macro environment remains volatile, with consensus trades facing significant pressure, particularly those betting against the dollar and for a steepening yield curve [3][7] - There is a 50/50 split among market participants regarding concerns over inflation versus growth, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [7] Economic Forecast - The forecast for the U.S. economy includes a GDP growth of 2%, core PCE at 3%, and an unemployment rate of 4.5% by year-end [7] - The terminal interest rate is expected to approach 2.5%, with a pessimistic view on fiscal conditions [7] Future Outlook - The upcoming Fed rate cut cycle is anticipated, with predictions of three insurance rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut in October if non-farm payroll data continues to be revised downwards [9] - Factors such as the peak of tariff impacts, significant fiscal stimulus, and loosening financial conditions are expected to support risk assets [10]