DLS MARKETS：PCE数据公布在即，金价波动迎来关键指引

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market is experiencing a stagnant performance, with prices fluctuating around $3742 per ounce, unable to maintain the mild upward trend from the previous trading day due to strong U.S. macroeconomic data and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite external pressure from a strengthening dollar, gold prices are constrained by multiple factors, including cautious market sentiment ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent global economic uncertainties, such as trade policy adjustments and escalating regional tensions, have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, limiting its price decline [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the second quarter GDP annual growth rate to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating strong economic resilience [3] - Durable goods orders in August increased by 2.9%, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims also saw a decrease [3] - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation pressures and monetary policy tightening are complicating the policy outlook, with current market pricing indicating a less than 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 60% for December [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key support levels between $3720 and $3715; a break below this range could trigger technical selling and push prices down to $3650 or even $3600 [4] - On the upside, gold faces resistance near $3753-$3754; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the historical high of $3790 set earlier in the week, and sustaining above the $3800 level would bolster confidence in a long-term upward trend for gold [4]