IC外汇平台：美国GDP数据扰动市场，白银期货不改上涨势头

Core Viewpoint - Domestic silver futures continue to show strong performance, trading above 10,496 yuan/kg, with a peak of 10,597 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1][5]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. GDP data exceeded expectations, with the Q2 annualized growth rate revised from 3.3% to 3.8%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 of last year. Consumer spending was also adjusted from 1.6% to 2.5%, reflecting economic resilience [5]. - The PCE price index was slightly revised up to 2.1%, while core PCE remained at 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data has led to a subtle shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in October now at 83%, down from nearly 100% [5]. - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with significant increases in 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields, while the U.S. dollar index has also shown a rebound. Despite this, speculative positions in dollar index futures remain net short, close to historical extremes [5]. Technical Analysis - The daily silver price has reached new highs, confirming a bullish trend. The market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by a bullish moving average system and MACD indicators above the zero line [6]. - Key support is identified at 10,400 yuan/kg; as long as prices remain above this level, the bullish structure is intact. A drop below this support could signal further correction risks [6]. - The strong U.S. economic data has led to a rebound in the dollar, affecting rate cut expectations, yet silver futures maintain their inherent strength, continuously reaching new highs, indicating ongoing demand for precious metals [6][7].