百利好晚盘分析：纷纷看好降息 关注核心PCE

Gold - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that failing to quickly lower interest rates could harm the economy, advocating for significant rate cuts to return to neutral levels, proposing a 50 basis point cut followed by 125 basis points in the next two meetings [1] - UBS Global Wealth Management predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut rates in the coming months, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by Q1 2026 [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that the expectation of rate cuts, following Powell's hint on August 22, has led to a rise in gold prices due to weakening economic data [1] - Technically, gold shows a bullish trend on weekly and monthly charts, with a potential upward movement if it breaks above $3,760, targeting $3,790 and possibly $3,850 next week [1] Oil - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized final value recorded at 3.8%, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating strong economic resilience [2] - Eight oil companies have reached agreements with the Kurdish regional government in Iraq, leading to concerns about oversupply as Kurdish oil supply is set to resume [2] - The summer demand peak has passed, and OPEC+ continues to increase production, outpacing global oil demand growth, which is unfavorable for oil prices [2] - Technically, oil rebounded from around $62, reaching a high of $65.38, but faces resistance in the $65-$66 range; if it cannot break through, it may continue to fluctuate between $61.50 and $65 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. durable goods orders for August increased by 2.9%, significantly better than the previous decline of 2.7% and the expected drop of 0.5% [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were recorded at 218,000, down from 232,000, also better than expected [3] - Kansas City Fed President George indicates that recent data shows rising risks in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that rate cuts may be appropriate [3] - Technically, the dollar index continues to rise, breaking through the 98 resistance level, with a potential to breach 98.80 if the upward trend continues [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend on the daily chart, with a high probability of further increases [4] - The hourly chart indicates a high-level consolidation, with an upward shift in low points, suggesting an impending directional decision [4] - A drop below 45,230 could lead to a deeper correction towards 44,530, while a breakout above 45,890 could extend the upward trend [4] Copper - Copper prices failed to maintain upward momentum, peaking at $4.86 before falling below the critical support level of $4.74, indicating potential further declines [5] - The focus for the day is on the resistance at $4.74 and support at $4.62 [5] Market Overview - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the importance of focusing on employment rather than inflation, with various members expressing differing views on the appropriateness of rate cuts [6] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a ban on diesel exports, which will last until the end of the year, and extended the gasoline export ban [6] Upcoming Data/Events - The U.S. will release August PCE data and personal spending month-on-month at 20:30 [7] - Federal Reserve's Barkin will speak at 21:00 [8] - The final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and one-year inflation expectations will be released at 22:00 [7][8]