美联储决策层洗牌，2%通胀目标会否被废除？

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve changing its 2% inflation target is minimal, but discussions around alternative targets may intensify as the composition of the Federal Reserve Board changes and Powell's term ends in May next year [1][4]. Inflation Performance - The U.S. inflation rate is expected to show that it has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 54 consecutive months, which is a rare occurrence for a central bank [1][3]. - The median expectation among Federal Reserve officials indicates that overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and core PCE inflation may not return to 2% until 2028, and even this timeline may be difficult to achieve [3]. Employment and Monetary Policy - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve includes "full employment and price stability," but rising risks in the employment sector have prompted a restart of the rate-cutting cycle [3]. - Current financial conditions are among the most accommodative in years, with economic growth remaining robust, suggesting that rate cuts could further exacerbate inflationary pressures [3]. Trust in Inflation Targeting - The longer the Federal Reserve fails to meet its inflation target, the more likely public trust in the "inflation target itself" and the overall policy-making of the Federal Reserve may be undermined [3]. Potential Shift to Inflation Range - There is a possibility of adopting an "inflation range" as an alternative to the current target, which some Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have shown openness to [5]. - Bostic suggested that a range of 1.75% to 2.25% could be a reasonable starting point, emphasizing that this approach would provide greater flexibility for policymakers [5]. Advantages and Disadvantages of Inflation Range - An "inflation range" could allow the Federal Reserve to avoid being technically in violation of its target even if inflation exceeds 2%, as long as it remains within the defined range [5]. - However, a wider range could lead to accumulated pressure if inflation spirals out of control, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to implement overly aggressive and uncomfortable policy measures [6]. Global Context and Consumer Expectations - While the "inflation range" approach is more common in emerging markets, developed economies like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have also adopted it, although central banks generally prefer more precise inflation targets [8]. - Consumer expectations for inflation are notably high, with a one-year expectation of 4.8% and a five-year expectation of 3.9%, which could lead to a "wage-price spiral" if not addressed [8].