美国造船业绞索已套上中国企业脖子：一场关乎全球海运的生死博弈

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a new policy targeting China's shipbuilding industry, imposing additional service fees on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports, aiming to curb China's dominance in shipbuilding and support its own shipyards [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policy and Its Implications - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced a policy on February 21, 2025, requiring additional fees for Chinese-built ships, starting from October 14, with fees set at $50 per ton for Chinese ships and $18 per ton or $120 per container for non-Chinese ships [2]. - The policy stems from a Section 301 investigation initiated on April 17, 2024, which highlighted China's subsidies and market practices, leading to significant cost increases for Chinese ships entering U.S. ports [3]. - The average cost for a large Chinese-built ship could double, resulting in an increase of $200 per TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) for shipping costs, which poses challenges for global trade [3]. Group 2: China's Shipbuilding Industry Performance - China's shipbuilding industry has been performing exceptionally well, with a completion rate of 55.7% of global shipbuilding, 74.1% of new orders, and 63.1% of hand-held orders as of January 16, 2024 [5]. - China leads in 14 out of 18 major ship types, including bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships, and has captured over 70% of global orders for green ships in the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Group 3: Impact on Global Shipping and Competitors - Following the U.S. policy announcement, Chinese ship orders plummeted, with Norwegian and European shipping giants redirecting 30% of their orders to South Korean shipyards, which are now benefiting from the situation [6]. - South Korean shipyards, such as Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries, have introduced "zero-risk compensation clauses" to attract clients and have seen a 25% increase in order tonnage by July [6]. - The global shipping chain has been disrupted, leading to increased shipping costs for high-value goods and a significant drop in shipping stocks on Wall Street [9]. Group 4: China's Countermeasures - In response to the U.S. policy, China has initiated reciprocal measures, including additional fees on Boeing aircraft entering Chinese ports and antitrust investigations into Qualcomm, impacting U.S. companies heavily reliant on the Chinese market [11]. - Chinese shipyards are upgrading their equipment and improving efficiency to capture markets in Southeast Asia and India, maintaining their leading position in global orders [11]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Dynamics - The ongoing trade conflict represents a struggle for global maritime influence, with shipping accounting for over 90% of world trade, and future trends leaning towards green transformation and digitalization [12]. - Despite U.S. efforts to regain its shipbuilding industry, analysts suggest that China's market share will remain above 60%, as the resilience of its industrial chain and international cooperation will enable it to adapt [12][14].