在猪周期里躲牛市？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of pork companies in the first half of 2025 appears strong, with significant profit increases, yet the capital market remains skeptical, leading to many pork stocks languishing at low levels and some becoming "zombie stocks" unable to benefit from market uptrends [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Major pork companies reported impressive profits: Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1169.77%; Wens Foodstuff Group reported a net profit of 3.475 billion yuan, up 159.12%; New Hope recorded a net profit of 754.9 million yuan, a 162% increase; and Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry posted a net profit of 1.292 billion yuan [1]. - The profits are primarily driven by cost reductions rather than price increases or scale expansions, as raw material prices like corn and soybean meal have declined, coupled with improved production efficiency [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry faces a significant overcapacity issue, with the number of breeding sows still at 40.42 million as of July 2025, exceeding the normal holding capacity [3]. - The market has not yet seen a supply-demand gap due to prolonged profitability since May 2024, with larger scale farms dominating the market, which hinders natural capacity reduction [4][5]. Group 3: Policy and Regulation - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission have mandated that 25 leading pork companies reduce their breeding sows by 1 million by January 2026, with penalties for non-compliance [3][5]. - The policy's effectiveness may be limited due to structural differences in the industry, where large companies comply while smaller farms may not, potentially undermining the intended impact of the regulations [5][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The industry has been in a profitable cycle since May 2024, but as of September 2025, the self-breeding model has begun to incur losses, with an average loss of 24.44 yuan per pig [11]. - The average price of pigs has dropped to approximately 12.6 yuan/kg, while the average cost is around 12.8 yuan/kg, indicating that further price declines are necessary for significant capacity reduction [11][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Even if production capacity decreases, overall supply may not decline due to increased production efficiency, which has risen significantly from 15.3 in January 2021 to 20.8 in January 2025 [13]. - The expectation for a reversal in the pork cycle should be tempered, as the industry is transitioning to a "micro-profit norm," shifting investment logic from "betting on cycles" to "selecting stocks" [16][17].