鲍威尔提前剧透PCE料温和上涨，但魔鬼藏在细节里！

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a moderate increase, with the overall PCE projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, while the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to increase by 0.2% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the year-over-year overall PCE inflation rate for August is expected to reach 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% in the previous month, while the core PCE inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 2.9% [1][2] - Despite inflation being above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, Powell and other Fed officials are reassured that inflation has not surged unexpectedly due to increased tariffs [2] Inflation Monitoring - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the extent of price increases in goods and whether the recent rise in service costs is a temporary fluctuation [3][4] - Goods prices have been significantly impacted by tariffs, showing only a 0.5% increase over the past year, with expectations of price declines for most of 2023 and 2024 [4] - Service price growth, which had previously slowed, has recently rebounded in June and July, raising concerns among Fed officials [4] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with a significant drop in new job creation, a gradual rise in unemployment rates, and an increase in the time it takes for individuals to find jobs [2] - The Fed implemented its first interest rate cut of the year, citing "weakness in the labor market" as a primary reason [2] Future Outlook - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that service costs will stabilize again, and they are looking for evidence of this in the upcoming August PCE report [5] - The PCE data is considered a critical economic indicator that will be closely watched by market participants [5]