中国停购大豆，特朗普出招的前一刻，美国遭到了“后花园”的背刺

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing challenges as China, the largest buyer, has not placed orders ahead of the new harvest season, marking a first in recent years [1] - Argentina's sudden decision to eliminate its 26% agricultural export tax has caught the U.S. off guard, coinciding with the U.S. soybean harvest season [3] - The price of Argentine soybeans has dropped significantly, making them more competitive against U.S. soybeans, which has led to a decline in U.S. soybean market prices [3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Argentina's removal of the export tax is expected to stimulate soybean exports and provide a quick influx of foreign currency, benefiting Argentine farmers who have a stockpile of 20 million tons of soybeans [5] - The current market structure for China has shifted to favor Brazilian soybeans, which accounted for 71.1% of imports in 2024, while U.S. soybeans only made up 21.1% [5][6] - China's existing soybean inventory is projected to last until the end of December, reducing the urgency to purchase U.S. soybeans [6] Group 2: Trade Relations - The U.S. agricultural sector is under pressure as farmers demand government intervention, while the Trump administration's previous tariffs on Chinese goods have diminished U.S. soybean market share in China to around 20% [8] - The situation reflects a broader trend of diversification in global trade, with China optimizing its import structure to reduce reliance on any single supplier [8][9] - The recent developments highlight the limitations of U.S. trade policies that rely on coercive tactics, as countries like Argentina prioritize their own economic interests [9]