比特币（BTC）未能复制黄金和股票历史新高的四大原因

Core Insights - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are lagging behind gold and stocks in reaching new highs, raising doubts about whether the bull market has ended [2][3] - A recent study by CryptoQuant identifies four key reasons for the weakness in the cryptocurrency market: Federal Reserve rate cuts, stablecoin supply, leveraged investors, and historical patterns [3] - The current liquidity tightness has left Bitcoin in a stalemate, with bulls not yet challenging historical highs, while gold and U.S. stock markets continue to set new records [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a historical pattern where institutional funds initially flow into high liquidity assets like stocks and gold during early rate cut phases by the Federal Reserve [3] - The total supply of stablecoins reached a new high of $308 billion this month, but the inflow to exchanges is lower than outflow, indicating a tendency among traders to hedge or take profits [6] - Liquidity is primarily distributed outside exchanges, including cross-chain transfers and private markets, rather than being actively used to purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum [7] Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The current market structure for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows similarities to a year ago, where price increases followed by liquidity not fully entering the cryptocurrency market led to corrections [5] - Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically lags behind traditional assets, often rising 12% in 30 days and 35% in 90 days after stocks reach new highs [9] - The upcoming expiration of $22.6 billion in options may significantly impact future price movements in the cryptocurrency market [13]