Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-26 14:05Core Summary - The A-share semiconductor sector has seen an 11% increase since September, with supply chain research confirming optimistic sentiment. The upstream wafer fabrication equipment (WFE), foundries, and OSAT/test service providers are positive, while semiconductor design companies are cautious about traditional end-user demand but remain optimistic about long-term opportunities driven by domestic AI [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rebound in capacity utilization driven by AI demand, with expectations for further increases by Q4 2025 [3]. - Price differentiation is evident, with storage products expected to see price increases, while mature logic products may face downward pressure [4]. Group 2: WFE Demand and Key Recommendations - China's WFE imports in August showed a 12% year-on-year increase, supporting a positive outlook for overall semiconductor capital expenditures [5]. - Morgan Stanley highlights Zhongwei Company as a key player in the WFE sector, with over 40% year-on-year growth in existing orders, primarily from high-end fields [6]. Group 3: End-user Demand Dynamics - The smartphone market is facing stagnation, leading to increased price competition among components, which may pressure related design companies [7]. - The AIoT sector is emerging as a growth driver for companies like OmniVision, which is benefiting from rising demand for new applications such as action cameras and AIAR glasses [8]. Group 4: Long-term Growth Drivers - Domestic AI chip localization is identified as a long-term growth driver for the semiconductor supply chain, with an expected increase in local AI chip suppliers and capacities by 2026 [9]. - Key companies benefiting from this trend include Zhongwei Company, Weicai Technology, Yongsha Electronics, and Changchuan Technology, all of which are projected to see accelerated profit growth [9]. Group 5: Valuation Adjustments and Preferred Stocks - The semiconductor sector's overall valuation is expected to rise due to the long-term growth of domestic AI supply chains, with AI enablers showing greater elasticity [10]. - Core recommended stocks include Zhongwei Company, OmniVision, and Wentai Technology, all of which have strong growth prospects and attractive valuations [10].