产能利用率仅66%，李子园如何消化过剩的“甜”产能？

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan has announced the termination of a 200 million yuan dairy beverage project in Yunnan due to objective factors such as land and industrial planning, reflecting a cautious approach to capacity expansion amid declining demand for high-sugar dairy products [1][4][5] Company Summary - Li Ziyuan's core product, high-sugar dairy beverages, is facing significant market challenges, with revenue from dairy beverages declining for two consecutive years [4][6] - As of the first half of 2025, the company's dairy beverage revenue was 583 million yuan, down 11.19% year-on-year, accounting for 93.8% of total revenue [6] - The company has five ongoing projects with a total budget of 1.58 billion yuan, expecting capacity to reach 592,600 tons by 2029, a 58% increase from 2024 [5][12] - The company is experiencing a decline in core markets, with revenue in East and Central China dropping by 8.12% and 6.65%, respectively, and a net reduction of 415 distributors [6] Industry Summary - The health consumption trend has led to a shift away from high-sugar beverages, with nearly 80% of consumers now considering sugar content when purchasing drinks [6][7] - The ready-to-drink tea and low-temperature fresh milk markets are gaining popularity, with the ready-to-drink tea market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [7] - Li Ziyuan's production capacity utilization is low, with an overall utilization rate of only 66% as of 2024, highlighting the issue of overcapacity in the context of changing consumer preferences [7][8] Financial Summary - Li Ziyuan's interest-bearing debt reached 757 million yuan as of the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.79%, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio of 24.66% [8] - The company's gross margin has declined by 1.0 percentage points to 15.8% due to rising raw material costs, particularly from imported whole milk powder [8] - New product lines, including plant-based protein drinks and vitamin beverages, have not yet contributed significantly to revenue, with total revenue from non-dairy beverages at 35.83 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [9][11] Strategic Initiatives - To address supply chain risks, Li Ziyuan is investing 320 million yuan in a deep processing project for raw milk in Ningxia, aiming to reduce reliance on imports [8] - The company is also focusing on brand rejuvenation and expanding into new sales channels, with e-commerce revenue growing by 90.5% in 2024 [11] - Despite these efforts, traditional distribution channels still account for 95% of revenue, indicating a long road ahead for channel transformation [11]