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地平线机器人-W(09660.HK):地平线机器人研究十问
Ge Long Hui·2025-09-26 15:44

Group 1 - The market size of intelligent driving chips SoC is projected to have a CAGR of 29% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the increasing penetration of smart driving technology [1] - In 2024, the estimated sales of passenger cars in China will be approximately 23 million, with a smart driving penetration rate of 55%, translating to about 12.5 million vehicles, primarily driven by ADAS [1] - By 2030, the smart driving penetration rate is expected to approach 100%, with the AD penetration rate reaching 96%, equating to around 23 million vehicles [1] Group 2 - The pricing of smart driving chips is significantly correlated with computing power, with the current mainstream high-end solution, dual Orin-X (508 TOPS), struggling to support end-to-end + VLA model deployment [1] - The industry is in urgent need of high-computing power chips, as local deployment of VLA + VLM models requires effective computing power greater than 2000 TOPS [1] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in the proportion of high-computing power solutions, which will support the overall ASP to continue rising [1] Group 3 - The chip industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with only 2-3 companies likely to survive and develop positively in the long term [1] - The competition in the automotive chip sector is narrowing down to a confrontation with Nvidia, with other manufacturers having certain shortcomings [2] - The company is positioned as a primary beneficiary of the domestic production of intelligent driving chip computing power, focusing on ASIC technology which offers high computing efficiency and low costs [2] Group 4 - Revenue projections for the company indicate a year-on-year increase of 53%, 70%, and 54% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 3.6 billion, 6.2 billion, and 9.6 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to PS ratios of 36X, 21X, and 14X for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic intelligent driving chip sector, which is considered rare, leading to a recommendation to "increase holdings" [2]