Patrick Moorhead: Trump admin floating tariffs as U.S. lacks enough chip capacity

Core Insights - The Trump administration is reportedly considering a plan to pressure chip companies to increase domestic manufacturing by imposing tariffs on those that import more semiconductors than they produce in the US [1][2][3] - This initiative is seen as a response to the insufficient semiconductor capacity in the US, particularly in light of the growing demand from AI data centers [3][4] - TSMC is not prioritizing the deployment of its best technology in the US, which presents an opportunity for Intel to capitalize on this situation [4] Semiconductor Industry - The administration's potential policy could lead to significant changes in the semiconductor landscape, with chipmakers expressing reluctance to alter their current operations [2][3] - Nvidia's recent announcement of a $100 billion partnership with OpenAI raises questions about the sustainability of such large-scale vendor financing in the long term [5][6] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a preference for American chips over competitors like Huawei, as highlighted by industry leaders [7][8][9] Investment Considerations - Nvidia's position is strong in the short term, but there are concerns about the long-term viability of its revenue targets, particularly with OpenAI aiming for a $125 billion revenue by 2029 [6][9] - The need for American technology to outpace Huawei is emphasized, as the latter has gained significant market share globally [11][12] - The investment thesis for American semiconductor companies remains robust, but there are risks associated with not participating in the growing Chinese market [12]