关税冲击有限！美国8月核心PCE稳住2.9%，10月降息稳了？

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's inflation target remains at 2%, but recent data is not expected to alter the policymakers' path, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end [5][6] Economic Data Summary - The U.S. August PCE price index increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also in line with market predictions [2] - The core PCE price index for August remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [2] - Personal income grew by 0.4% and personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% in August, both exceeding expectations by 0.1 percentage points [2] Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite the impact of tariffs, consumer spending has shown resilience, with a personal savings rate rising to 4.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [5] - Economic uncertainty caused by tariffs initially led to reduced consumer spending, but a rebound was observed during the summer months [5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on October 29 are strong, with a probability of 87.7%, while the likelihood of a subsequent cut in December is around 65% [6][7]