人工智能产业“十四五”复盘与“十五五”展望：“两个变局”下的AI要素化跃

Core Insights - The report focuses on the development and trends of the AI industry during China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), highlighting significant changes and advancements in technology, industry ecology, policy support, and application expansion [2][8]. Group 1: 14th Five-Year Plan Review - The AI industry has undergone five major qualitative changes, establishing a foundation for "factorization" [9]. - Technological transformation is marked by the dominance of the Transformer architecture, which has unified AIGC (AI-Generated Content) and completed the "engine convergence" [12][19]. - The computing power landscape has shifted, with domestic AI chips closing the efficiency gap with international counterparts, and the evolution from general IDC (Internet Data Center) to AIDC (AI Data Center) [25][26]. - Data has transitioned from governmental sharing to being recognized as a fiscal element, with mechanisms for asset inclusion and revenue sharing being established [33][34]. - Market dynamics have changed, with the end of the visual dividend leading to a downward shift in both supply and payment curves, allowing for a revaluation of AI [10][12]. Group 2: 15th Five-Year Plan Outlook - The AI factorization leap will be characterized by "price discovery, scale trading, and cross-border output," with Agents as the core vehicle [9]. - The product dimension will see a shift from passive execution to autonomous collaboration, with revenue models evolving from token-based to profit-sharing [9][10]. - The supply side will benefit from a complete domestic ecosystem, enabling the definition of "Agent instruction sets" and achieving pricing power [9][10]. - Demand will expand into global southern markets, with significant population potential and a projected compound annual growth rate of 9.2% for the digital economy [9][10]. - Five key application scenarios are expected to see iterative expansion, transitioning from project-based to subscription-based consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: computing power infrastructure, AI Agents and MaaS (Model as a Service) providers, intelligent terminals and embodied intelligent robots, and AI applications in green and low-carbon initiatives [9][10].