柠檬缺货背后：蜜雪冰城和新茶饮们的供应链大考

Core Insights - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City has raised concerns among consumers, as the company sells over 1 billion cups annually, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain in the beverage industry [1][2][5] Supply Chain Issues - The shortage is attributed to delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the local lemon harvesting season not aligning with demand, leading to supply constraints in various cities including Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [1][2] - Mixue Ice City relies heavily on a single source for lemons, with approximately 70% of its annual lemon procurement of about 115,000 tons coming from Anju, Sichuan, which accounts for nearly 10% of the national lemon production [2][3] Market Dynamics - The price of lemons has surged, with the average wholesale price reaching 15 yuan per kilogram, double the price from the previous year, driven by increased demand from both beverage and food processing industries [3][4] - The rapid expansion of the tea beverage market, growing at 20% annually, is outpacing the growth of lemon planting areas, which are expected to increase by only 8% by 2025, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Other tea beverage companies, such as Cha Bai Dao and Gu Ming, have established robust supply chains and diversified sourcing strategies to mitigate risks associated with raw material shortages [6][7] - The need for new tea beverage companies to develop resilient supply chains and reduce dependency on single sources is emphasized, as consumer trust may decline with frequent product shortages [5][6] Strategic Recommendations - Companies are encouraged to engage in large-scale procurement to lower costs and explore multiple sourcing channels to avoid reliance on a few suppliers [7] - The establishment of "order-based agriculture" and investment in upstream cultivation, as seen with Mixue Ice City's initiatives in Sichuan, can enhance supply chain stability [6][7]