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机构：年末人民币升值将趋于7.0
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-26 19:55

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the People's Bank of China implementing interest rate cuts in Q4, the RMB is expected to appreciate, with the USD/RMB exchange rate projected to approach 7.0 by year-end under baseline conditions and 6.7 in optimistic scenarios [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is associated with improved market risk appetite, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the latter being more sensitive to foreign capital and global liquidity [1] - The macro report from China Galaxy Securities indicates signs of economic weakness in Q3, leading to a new policy waiting period, but there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts in Q4 [1] Group 2 - The current RMB appreciation is not driven by economic fundamentals but rather by a self-reinforcing cycle of exchange rate expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market [2] - The Chinese government's low debt cost relative to economic growth and high efficiency in debt usage supports the exchange rate, with significant policy financial tools and special refinancing bonds expected to be implemented in Q4 [2] - An estimated $700 billion to $1 trillion in settlement demand may be released during the upcoming appreciation cycle, providing further support for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Weak economic fundamentals typically correspond to lower valuations in the Chinese stock market, making it more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Significant interest rate cuts are expected to boost economic recovery expectations and enhance corporate profit forecasts, which are crucial for the performance of the Chinese stock market [3] Group 4 - In the US stock market, signals indicate that stock prices are relatively high, with the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 surpassing 40 for the first time since 2000, raising concerns about potential market corrections [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned that stock prices are relatively elevated, suggesting caution in the market [6]