NKE Technicals Stumbles Ahead of Earnings, Options Show Split Picture

Core Viewpoint - Nike is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings next week, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a buy rating and a $95 price target on its shares, anticipating continued improvement in fundamentals and recovery in key segments like performance running and women's apparel [1][2]. Company Performance - Over the past five years, Nike has underperformed, down approximately 45%, while the broader market and consumer discretionary sector have seen larger gains [3]. - Year-to-date, Nike is performing better than other apparel companies, with competitors like Lululemon down over 52% [4]. Recent Developments - Nike has launched a collaboration with Kim Kardashian's Skims activewear brand, which is estimated to be worth around $4 billion, marking a significant opportunity for Nike [5][6]. - This collaboration is part of Nike's broader turnaround strategy, leveraging celebrity brand integrations that have been successful in the retail sector [7]. Technical Analysis - Nike's stock has been trending downward, with notable resistance at the $80 level and current trading around $69, indicating a precarious situation ahead of earnings [9][10]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold area, suggesting weakness in the market trend, which is not favorable for bullish sentiment heading into earnings [11]. Analyst Commentary - Recent price target adjustments include Morgan Stanley lowering its target from $70 to $64, and Telsey Advisory adjusting from $70 to $75, both maintaining equal weight ratings [12]. - Analysts express cautious optimism, noting potential low single-digit sales declines due to headwinds like rising costs from tariffs and softer demand from China [13]. Options Activity - Options trading volume for Nike reached about 114,000 contracts, with a 60/40 split favoring calls over puts, indicating some bullish sentiment [14]. - The expected price movement for October 17th suggests key levels of $62 to the downside and $76 to the upside, with significant open interest at $95 for calls and $67.5 for puts [16].