Apple(US:AAPL) 智通财经网·2025-09-26 01:33Core Insights - The global smartphone market's Average Selling Price (ASP) is projected to increase from $357 in 2024 to $370 in 2025, reaching $412 by 2029, with a CAGR of 3% driven by high-end trends and 5G adoption [1][4][10] - Smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 1.9%, but lower than the initial estimate of 4% due to price increases, supply chain adjustments, and macroeconomic pressures [1][4] - The combined effect of rising ASP and shipment growth is anticipated to drive smartphone revenue to increase by nearly 6% year-on-year in 2025, with a long-term revenue CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $564 billion by 2029 [1][4] ASP Trends - North America's ASP is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year in 2025, driven by high-end models and ongoing promotions, with projections for ASP to reach $984 by 2026 [5][6] - In China, the ASP growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 3.6%, influenced by Huawei, OPPO, and vivo, while Apple's ASP is expected to increase by about 2% [5][6] - India's ASP is projected to remain below $250 in 2025 but is expected to rise to $287 by 2029 due to the ongoing high-end trend [6] Brand Performance - Apple is expected to maintain its high-end market position, with ASP rising from $919 in 2025 to nearly $1,000 by 2029, despite a 9% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025 due to the introduction of the iPhone 16e [6][9] - Samsung's ASP is anticipated to remain stable, with flagship models impacting overall ASP but supported by foldable phones and GenAI integration for long-term growth [9] - Huawei is strengthening its ASP growth in China, driven by its Mate and Pura series, with expectations for overseas market expansion [9] Market Dynamics - The smartphone market is gradually normalizing after years of volatility due to pandemic demand fluctuations and supply chain challenges, with expectations for a more stable market environment by late 2025 to 2026 [4][10] - The introduction of GenAI smartphones is expected to increase the Bill of Materials (BoM) cost by $40-$60 per device, shifting ASP growth from cost-driven to value-driven as consumers are willing to pay a premium for AI-centric devices [9][10] - Foldable smartphones, although currently representing less than 2% of global shipments, are expected to influence consumer perceptions of high-end products, with Apple planning to launch its foldable model by the end of 2026 [10]