21评论丨鲍威尔为何给美股牛市预期泼冷水？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the resulting liquidity are becoming decisive factors in the pricing of the U.S. equity market, leading to heightened expectations for a bull market, which were dampened by Powell's comments on the overvaluation of stock indices [2][3] - Following Powell's remarks, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping an average of 79 basis points over three consecutive trading days, significantly impacting the bullish outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy challenges are highlighted by the potential for a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index and a reduced incentive for global capital to flow back to the U.S., potentially resulting in decreased investment and economic recession [2][3] Group 2 - The current U.S. debt crisis and the implications of the "Big and Beautiful Act" are leading to a loss of value anchoring for dollar assets, which may prompt global investors to sell off dollar-denominated assets as a risk-averse strategy [3] - The Federal Reserve aims to manage market expectations regarding the extent and frequency of future interest rate cuts to prevent a consensus on a one-sided outlook, which could complicate its monetary policy objectives [3][5] - The U.S. government's increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, which has surpassed 123%, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policy and its impact on market perceptions of the U.S. economy, necessitating careful consideration by the Federal Reserve [4]