美债竞局现裂痕！中美高层博弈减持黄金布局，多极化货币时代启幕

Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement and Financial Implications - A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation visited China for the first time since 2019, emphasizing the need for high-level dialogue between the U.S. and China [1] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated the importance of mutual respect in cooperation, while the U.S. seeks to stabilize market confidence by urging China to halt or slow down the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][9] - The backdrop of these discussions includes significant concerns over U.S. Treasury market stability and the implications of China's actions on global financial markets [1][9] Group 2: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2] - This reduction is part of a broader trend, with China having decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, totaling a net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Drivers - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including high national debt and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually [3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, leading to fears about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the credibility of the dollar [3][8] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Other Nations - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan holding $1.147 trillion and the UK $858.1 billion, contrasting with China's reduction [4] - Japan's increase is attributed to trade surpluses and low domestic interest rates, while the UK's increase reflects its role as a global financial hub and the need for liquidity amid economic uncertainty [4] Group 5: Credit Ratings and Market Reactions - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and increasing deficits [5] - The downgrade may trigger passive adjustments by various institutions, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 6: Shift Towards Alternative Assets - Central banks are increasingly looking for reserve assets that do not rely on U.S. credit, leading to a rise in gold holdings, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by August 2025 [6] - The global trend shows a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 7: Currency and Settlement Changes - The cross-border settlement of digital yuan surpassed 500 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [7] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.7%, while the use of the yuan in cross-border payments has risen significantly [7] Group 8: U.S. Monetary Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in 2020 to $9 trillion in 2025 through quantitative easing to stabilize the Treasury market [8] - The ongoing fiscal debates in the U.S. Congress could lead to a government shutdown, further impacting the credibility of U.S. debt [8] Group 9: Future Observations and Implications - The visit of the U.S. delegation to China highlights the urgency of addressing financial risks and the need for cooperation on key issues [9] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China could signify a shift in diplomatic and financial strategies between the two nations [9][10]