3 6 Ke·2025-09-27 02:30Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group is actively advancing its AI infrastructure construction with an investment of 380 billion RMB, planning to increase this investment further, indicating a strong commitment to AI development in response to global trends in cloud services [1][2]. Static Financial Capacity - The first level of available funds for Alibaba is approximately 492.4 billion RMB, derived from cash, short-term investments, and receivables [2][3]. - The second level of potential funds amounts to about 971.4 billion RMB, considering long-term investments that can be liquidated [4][5]. - The third level, after debt repayment, leaves Alibaba with around 524.7 billion RMB available for use [6][7]. - Overall, Alibaba's available funds range from 524.7 billion to 732.2 billion RMB, which is 1.4 to 1.9 times its planned capital expenditure of 380 billion RMB [8]. Future Cash Flow Generation - From FY21 to FY25, Alibaba's adjusted EBITDA and net cash flow from operating activities are projected to be over 920 billion RMB, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [9][10]. - The average annual cash flow for the next three years (FY26-FY28) is estimated at 185 billion RMB, totaling approximately 555 billion RMB, even after accounting for a previously announced 50 billion RMB subsidy [10]. Capital Expenditure Potential - If Alibaba reallocates its cash flow from share buybacks and dividends towards AI infrastructure, it could increase its capital expenditure by about 150 billion RMB over three years [11][13]. - In extreme scenarios, Alibaba's total available funds for AI infrastructure could exceed 1 trillion RMB, significantly higher than the initial 380 billion RMB target [13]. - Comparing with global peers, Alibaba's capital expenditure to adjusted EBITDA ratio is estimated at 76%, which is competitive, and could potentially increase to over 500 billion RMB if the company fully commits its cash flow to AI investments [14].