释放鸽派信号！美联储鲍曼：就业市场“脆弱”需要果断降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, emphasizes the need for decisive interest rate cuts due to a "fragile" labor market and inflation nearing target levels, while also advocating for a smaller balance sheet and reforms in monetary policy execution [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Bowman calls for immediate action to lower interest rates to prevent further deterioration of the labor market, suggesting that the Fed should aim for three rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut starting in September [4][6]. - The latest data indicates significant vulnerabilities in the labor market, and inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is close to the Fed's target [4][5]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Management - Bowman expresses a preference for maintaining the Fed's balance sheet at a minimal size, advocating for a return to a framework where the Fed actively manages its balance sheet to better gauge market pressures [3][4]. - She criticizes the over-reliance on data, which may lead to delayed policy responses, and supports a more forward-looking decision-making approach based on economic forecasts [5][7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 0.3% in August, with an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, indicating a moderate inflation environment [9][11]. - Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2%, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9%, suggesting that inflation is rising at a moderate pace and remains below the Fed's long-term target of 2% [11][12]. - Consumer spending grew by 0.6%, surpassing expectations, which supports a robust economic outlook despite a slowdown in the labor market [12].