美联储最青睐通胀数据缓解忧虑，三大指数终结三连阴

Core Insights - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August, while the core PCE index increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation data [2] - Following the release of the PCE data, U.S. stock markets rebounded after three consecutive days of decline, with the Dow Jones up 0.65%, S&P 500 up 0.59%, and Nasdaq up 0.44% [2] - The consumer confidence index for September fell to 55.1, marking one of the lowest levels since 1952, reflecting growing pessimism among consumers regarding the economy [4] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July, which was significantly below market expectations [3] - The final GDP growth rate for Q2 was revised up to an annualized 3.8%, driven by unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports [3] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew by 0.6% month-on-month in August, surpassing expectations of 0.5% [5] Consumer Sentiment - A significant 44% of survey respondents reported that high prices are eroding their financial situation, the highest proportion in the past year [4] - The consumer sentiment index indicates that concerns over inflation and a weakening job market are prevalent among consumers [4] - High-income households are currently the main drivers of consumer spending, supported by a strong stock market and high housing prices [5] Market Outlook - There is a divergence in views within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace and extent of future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution while others call for more aggressive action [4] - The wealth effect from rising stock and housing prices is increasingly influencing consumer spending, posing risks if these asset prices decline [5]