中国亮剑！已停购美国大豆4个月，要求先取消关税，然后再买

Core Viewpoint - The cessation of soybean purchases by China from the U.S. for four consecutive months, amounting to a $12.6 billion business, signifies a serious economic confrontation rather than mere negotiation tactics [1][3][31]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans since May, marking a complete disappearance of a buyer that previously accounted for 60% of U.S. soybean exports [3][20]. - In September, China signed a record agreement with Argentina for 35 shipments of soybeans, highlighting its ability to source from other countries like Brazil and Argentina without facing supply shortages [7][9]. - From January to September 2025, China's imports of U.S. soybeans were zero, while imports from Brazil increased by 45%, showcasing China's dominant position in the global soybean supply chain [9][20]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The loss of the Chinese market is critical for U.S. soybean farmers, as it represents a significant portion of their income and impacts the broader agricultural economy [5][20]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing a ripple effect, with banks tightening loans to farmers and machinery sales declining, leading to a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in GDP growth for agricultural states [20][22]. - The U.S. government has introduced subsidy programs to alleviate farmer pressure, but farmers express that they need market access rather than temporary relief [22]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's firm stance on soybean imports is rooted in the trade tensions that began in 2018, where soybeans became a key leverage point in the economic conflict [14][26]. - The ongoing situation reflects a battle of patience, with China demonstrating a willingness to endure short-term costs for long-term benefits, contrasting with the U.S. expectation for quick resolutions [26][30]. - The economic measures taken by China serve as a new approach to international disputes, emphasizing that economic interdependence can be both a cooperative bond and a tool for balance [28][30]. Group 4: Future Considerations - As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, pressure on agricultural states is expected to increase, presenting a critical juncture for U.S. policymakers [30][33]. - China maintains that it is open to negotiations but insists on the removal of unreasonable tariffs as a prerequisite for resuming soybean purchases, indicating a demand for mutual respect in trade relations [12][31].