钱该往哪放？美国降息，中国按兵不动！央行信号明确，要走新路子

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to maintain the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, despite expectations for a rate cut, reflecting a careful assessment of the current economic situation [1][3]. Banking Sector - Commercial banks are facing a survival dilemma, with net interest margins dropping to 1.42%, the lowest since 2005, and below the non-performing loan rate of 1.49% [3][5]. - Large commercial banks have seen net interest margins fall to 1.31%, while some smaller banks are nearing the level of non-performing loans [5]. - The interest rates on demand deposits have reached a floor of 0.05%, limiting the space for further rate cuts [5]. Stock Market - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2025, but recent large sell-offs in the banking and securities sectors suggest a controlled pace by state-owned entities [7]. - A rate cut could lead to a rapid outflow of deposits into the stock market, which the PBOC aims to avoid to maintain market stability [9][11]. Real Estate Market - The effectiveness of rate cuts on stimulating the real estate market has diminished, as evidenced by a lack of demand for housing loans despite previous rate reductions [11]. - The core issue in the real estate market is not high interest rates but rather a lack of confidence and unstable expectations among consumers [11]. - The PBOC's strategy has shifted towards a combination of fiscal and industrial policies, rather than relying solely on monetary easing to stabilize the housing market [11][13]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is seen as a strategic move to balance multiple economic objectives, rather than a lack of action [13]. - Future monetary policy may focus on cost reduction and structural optimization rather than direct interest rate cuts [13].