bp：世界能源展望报告（2025版）

Core Insights - The 2025 BP Energy Outlook explores two scenarios: "Current Trajectory" and "Below 2°C," analyzing potential energy transition pathways up to 2050, rather than making predictions [1][6][58] - The "Current Trajectory" scenario suggests that carbon emissions will remain stable this decade and then gradually decline, with a projected reduction of about 25% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels, exceeding the IPCC's 2°C carbon budget [1][61] - The "Below 2°C" scenario assumes stricter climate policies and societal behavior changes, leading to a 90% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 2023, aligning with the IPCC's 2°C target [1][61] Energy Demand and Structure - Emerging economies (excluding China) are the primary drivers of energy demand growth, with electricity demand expected to double in both scenarios [1][45] - Solar and wind energy are projected to become the dominant power sources, while coal consumption is expected to decline due to reduced demand in power generation [1][48] - Oil demand is anticipated to decrease, but it will still play a significant role in the next 10-15 years, with the petrochemical sector becoming a major source of growth [1][47] Key Influencing Factors - Geopolitical fragmentation may lead countries to prioritize energy self-sufficiency, impacting energy supply chains and transition pathways [2] - Weak improvements in energy efficiency could hinder emission reduction efforts, potentially increasing fossil fuel demand [2] - Delayed transitions may result in costly adjustments needed to meet climate targets, with AI influencing energy systems by increasing data center power demand while optimizing energy efficiency [2] Regional and Sector Contributions - Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are crucial for emission reductions, with China significantly impacting the differences between the two scenarios [2][70] - The power and industrial sectors are the main contributors to emission reductions, accounting for 40% and 35% of the differences between the scenarios, respectively [2][72] - The transition from "energy addition" to "energy substitution" is expected, where low carbon energy increasingly replaces unabated fossil fuels [1][49][107]