多晶硅连涨三个月后，去产能的“大杀招”终于出现

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in polysilicon prices signals a positive trend for the photovoltaic industry, with prices surpassing 50,000 yuan per ton, indicating a potential recovery and consolidation in the market [1][3]. Price Trends - As of September 24, 2025, the average transaction prices for various types of polysilicon are as follows: n-type re-investment material at 53,200 yuan/ton, n-type dense material at 49,700 yuan/ton, and n-type granular silicon at 50,500 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon prices have increased for three consecutive months, with cumulative increases of 54.65% for n-type re-investment material, 55.80% for n-type dense material, and 50.75% for n-type granular silicon since June 25 [3]. Government and Industry Actions - The government has been actively promoting a "de-involution" stance since last year, aiming to prevent vicious competition and facilitate the exit of inefficient production capacities [3][4]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has intensified actions against disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for quality improvement and orderly exit of backward production capacities [4]. Capacity Storage and Integration - Leading polysilicon companies are reportedly planning to establish joint ventures for capacity storage, aiming to consolidate approximately 700,000 tons of production capacity through debt acquisition [5]. - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings has announced a strategic financing agreement to raise 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars, part of which will be allocated for supply-side reforms and structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity [5][6]. Energy Consumption Standards - New energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are expected to significantly impact capacity clearance and support long-term price increases [7][8]. - The proposed standards will lower energy consumption limits for polysilicon production, with the first level set at 5 kgce/kg, which is significantly stricter than current standards [9]. Challenges Ahead - The successful implementation of capacity storage and integration requires substantial national support and cannot rely solely on voluntary industry actions [13]. - There are concerns regarding the potential for companies to lower product quality to meet energy consumption standards, which could undermine the effectiveness of the regulations [12]. - The photovoltaic industry faces a demand shortage, which complicates the transmission of price increases downstream, indicating that without addressing demand, capacity reduction efforts may not yield the desired results [16].