美国和印度谈崩了，莫迪通知美国：不让买俄油，就买伊朗或委内瑞拉原油

Core Viewpoint - The negotiations between the U.S. and India are centered around oil purchases, particularly the pressure on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, which India views as essential for its economy and inflation control [1][5][22]. Group 1: U.S. Pressure Tactics - The U.S. has made it clear that any trade agreements with India are contingent upon India reducing its purchases of Russian oil, with tariffs and visa policies being used as leverage [1][3][22]. - Historical context shows that previous U.S. administrations, including Trump's, have linked trade concessions to India's oil sourcing decisions, indicating a long-standing strategy of using energy as a bargaining chip [3][22]. Group 2: India's Response and Strategy - India has firmly stated that Russian oil is economically necessary due to its affordability, and any unilateral restrictions would lead to increased costs and inflation [5][22]. - India has proposed that if it is to reduce Russian oil imports, the U.S. must ease restrictions on importing oil from Iran and Venezuela, indicating a willingness to negotiate but with conditions [5][13][22]. - The Indian government maintains that discussions with the U.S. have been constructive, leaving room for further negotiations despite the contentious issues [7][22]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Sanctions - The U.S. decision to revoke sanctions waivers for Iran's Chabahar port has significant implications for India's strategic interests, as this port is crucial for connecting to Afghanistan and Central Asia [10][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Chabahar port may force India to rely more on spot market purchases and long-distance oil sourcing, complicating its energy strategy [12][22]. Group 4: Domestic and Geopolitical Considerations - Both countries are aware that their negotiations are not just about oil but also about domestic political pressures and public perception [15][22]. - India's recent military advancements, such as the test of the Agni-Prime missile, serve as a demonstration of its capabilities and a signal of strength in the face of U.S. pressure [17][22]. - The ongoing discussions about H-1B visa regulations further complicate the relationship, as these changes directly impact India's IT and engineering sectors [20][22]. Group 5: Future Negotiation Pathways - For a resolution to be reached, the U.S. may need to establish a clear timeline for reducing Russian oil imports, provide compliance windows for Iranian and Venezuelan oil imports, and avoid using tariffs and visa issues as punitive measures [25][27]. - A balanced approach that considers both countries' economic and strategic interests could lead to a more favorable outcome in the negotiations [27].