警惕日本老路！盛松成：财富大迁移加速，低利率三大领域成新金矿

Core Insights - The current low interest rate environment in China is driving a significant shift of household savings towards capital markets, indicating a "wealth migration" focused on new infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and new urbanization [1][3][13] - This trend has raised questions about the potential positive effects of such a shift, particularly regarding the risk awareness of ordinary investors amid increasing market volatility [3][9] Group 1: Wealth Migration Trends - Data from the central bank shows a decrease of 600 billion yuan in household deposits year-on-year by August 2025, while non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan, signaling a "deposit migration" [3] - The shift towards capital markets is seen as a natural trend in financial market development, with a focus on diversified asset allocation [5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Investment is increasingly directed towards areas aligned with national strategic goals, such as new infrastructure and consumer infrastructure, which have clear policy support and cash flow guarantees [7][16] - However, there are concerns about over-reliance on policy-driven growth, which may distort market pricing mechanisms, especially in projects with long return cycles [7][14] Group 3: Low Interest Rate Environment - The low interest rate environment is a key factor driving asset allocation adjustments, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% and large-denomination certificates of deposit generally below 1.4% [9] - There are debates about whether low interest rates necessarily increase risk appetite, as historical examples show that prolonged low rates can lead to cash hoarding instead of investment [9][11] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The three identified sectors—new infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and new urbanization—are closely aligned with the national "two new and one heavy" strategy [13] - New infrastructure projects, such as 5G and data centers, require specialized judgment and high capital thresholds, while REITs have a limited focus on consumer infrastructure [14][16] Group 5: Long-term Considerations - The core advantage of new infrastructure lies in technological iteration, while consumer infrastructure is linked to domestic demand expansion [16] - Investors must be cautious, as policy direction does not guarantee market success, and local fiscal pressures could impact project viability [16][18]