美股：短期有回调风险，年底前有望冲7000点

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan forecasts that while the U.S. stock market may experience a short-term pullback, it is still expected to reach 7000 points by the end of the year, with a greater likelihood of upward movement than downward [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Short-term Risks - Five key short-term risks identified include: 1. Seasonal factors, as market performance in September and October is typically subdued 2. Excessive rebound magnitude, with the current rebound being stronger than in most years 3. Long-term lack of pullbacks, with the S&P 500 index not experiencing a 3% pullback in 93 days 4. Overheated retail investor sentiment, nearing a one-year high 5. Market has already priced in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, JPMorgan maintains confidence in the long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market - Seasonal factors are viewed positively in the long run, with investor positions breaking the downward trend and short positions potentially boosting indices - Historically, the stock market performs well after Federal Reserve rate cuts, and there may be strong inflows into stock ETFs by year-end - U.S. consumer cash reserves have reached record levels, supporting a positive outlook, with consumer cash reserves projected to reach $21.8 trillion by Q2 2025, and most income groups holding more cash than in 2019, which is expected to drive consumption and GDP growth [1]