抛售1.6万亿美元，美债最大卖家曝光，但却不是中国

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has quietly sold $1.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds over the past three years, surpassing the combined holdings of Japan and the UK, and significantly exceeding China's cumulative reduction of $500 billion [1][2] - This selling spree coincides with a complex economic strategy involving both liquidity withdrawal and interest rate cuts, revealing a precarious balance between debt management, inflation control, and political pressures [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve's dual role as both regulator and seller of U.S. Treasuries has emerged, driven by inflation pressures that peaked at 9% in 2022, necessitating a monthly reduction of up to $95 billion in bond holdings [2] - Despite initiating a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the Fed's balance sheet reduction has continued, indicating a struggle to manage inflation risks while addressing labor market concerns [2][5] - The Fed's actions have led to a significant reduction in bank reserves, dropping below the $3 trillion psychological threshold, raising concerns about potential liquidity crises [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Buyers - Traditional allies like Japan and the UK have become major buyers of U.S. Treasuries, with Japan holding $1.15 trillion and the UK increasing its holdings to $899.3 billion, surpassing China [2][4] - A new player in the market is stablecoins, which are now required to hold short-term U.S. Treasuries as reserves, potentially leading to $1.6 trillion in Treasury holdings by stablecoins by 2028 [3] - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with central banks rapidly selling U.S. Treasuries and increasing gold reserves, reflecting a growing distrust in U.S. financial practices [7] Group 3: Political and Economic Pressures - Political pressures have influenced the Federal Reserve's decisions, with former President Trump publicly urging rate cuts and threatening the Fed's leadership, highlighting the tension between political and monetary independence [5] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, prompting concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications of interest rate changes [5] - The ongoing debate within the Fed regarding the balance between controlling inflation and maintaining liquidity reflects the complexities of current economic conditions [7]