万腾外汇：四大原因将可能导致通胀飙升

Core Viewpoint - The macro research firm TSLombard presents a contrasting view to the prevailing narrative of resilience in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the economy may be heading towards a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, characterized by a rebound in inflation [1]. Economic Conditions - Stagflation is described as a "thorny problem" where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high, limiting the Federal Reserve's policy options [3]. - Mainstream forecasting institutions view stagflation as a "marginal risk," supported by recent moderate inflation data and strong economic growth, which together diminish concerns about stagflation [3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has officially restarted its rate-cutting cycle, a decision viewed by TSLombard's global macro head, Dario Perkins, as a "wrong start" [3]. - Perkins argues that the Fed's concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market, amidst fears that tariffs may push inflation above target, are significantly exaggerated [3]. Inflation Outlook - Perkins indicates that the anticipated cooling of inflation in 2025 is not due to endogenous economic factors but rather a result of "significant negative supply shocks" within the economic system [3]. - He emphasizes that the current demand weakness is "temporary," with demand likely to accelerate again in 2026, leading to a rebound in consumer prices [3]. Factors Supporting Demand Rebound - Release of Suppressed Demand: The easing of tariff policies and uncertainties in the job market is expected to lead to a resurgence in previously postponed consumer plans, with Perkins predicting a demand rebound in 2026 [4]. - Transmission Effects of Fed's Easing: The immediate impact of monetary policy easing is evident in interest-sensitive sectors, such as real estate, where new home sales surged by 20% month-on-month in August, indicating a recovery in demand [4]. - Global Central Bank Coordination: The collaborative easing measures by multiple central banks over the past year are expected to support global economic growth, which will, in turn, boost U.S. external demand [4]. - Fiscal Policy Initiatives: Stimulus measures from the Trump administration and recent fiscal plans from major economies like Germany are anticipated to enhance domestic demand, further strengthening the recovery momentum [4]. Inflation Risks - Perkins warns that if demand rebounds as expected and the Fed continues to cut rates, inflation could shift from "moderate" to "sticky," potentially accelerating again [5].