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国泰海通宏观:企业利润要实现持续全面修复仍需政策发力
Ge Long Hui·2025-09-28 01:23

Group 1 - In August, corporate profits turned positive year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year, with a year-to-date growth rate of 0.9% compared to -1.7% in July, and an August growth rate of 20.4% compared to -1.5% in July [2][9] - The profit distribution has become more reasonable, with upstream industries showing overall improvement supported by anti-involution and price increases, while midstream and downstream industries continue to experience profit differentiation [6][7] - The industrial product inventory continued to decrease, indicating a passive destocking trend, with cumulative revenue growth of 2.3% year-on-year for the first eight months, and August's revenue growth also at 2.3%, both higher than the previous month [9][10] Group 2 - The profit margin showed marginal improvement, with the cumulative profit margin for August at 5.8% and the monthly value at 5.2%, both higher than the previous month, benefiting from a reduction in costs despite a slight increase in raw material prices [4][6] - Upstream industries benefited from price increases and margin improvements, particularly in the steel, coal, and non-ferrous sectors, while midstream industries saw profit growth driven by demand recovery [7][8] - The overall profit structure has improved, with upstream profits maintaining around 25%, midstream at 50%, and downstream slightly recovering to 25%, indicating a more balanced distribution compared to the previous month [6][7]