洪灝：现在谈AI全面泡沫化为时过早

Core Insights - The AI investment boom is creating significant interest in US AI companies, but concerns about potential bubble risks are emerging among overseas investors [2] - The current uncertainty in the market revolves around whether the unprecedented investment in AI will yield long-term returns or lead to a capital frenzy that ultimately collapses [2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are increasingly worried about the overall bubble in assets, not just in US AI tech companies but also in new industries emerging in China, with many struggling to understand their valuations due to new business models [2] - The Chief Investment Officer of Lianhua Asset Management, Hong Hao, suggests that while a bubble is likely, the investment returns and opportunities that arise from it are worth pursuing [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Recent earnings reports indicate that US high-tech companies are experiencing accelerating profit growth, with some tech giants showing substantial cash flow [4] - The improvement in financial statements of tech companies suggests that current investments are effective, as such results would not be possible without valid underlying performance [4] Group 3: Valuation Trends - The discussion around AI bubbles primarily focuses on the valuations of tech companies, which have actually become cheaper from the beginning of the year rather than more expensive, as profit growth has outpaced stock price increases [4] - The phenomenon of declining valuations during the transition between old and new technologies is expected, making claims of a complete AI bubble premature [4] Group 4: Future Expectations - The anticipated shift in societal and productivity expectations due to new models will inevitably alter profit projections, with the concept of a bubble reflecting humanity's uncertainty in pricing the next model [5] - The transition period between old and new models is expected to bring about significant changes in how work and communication occur, as well as the role of AI in daily life [5]