盘中跌破5万元/吨大关 多晶硅市场交易逻辑有变

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to decline, primarily due to insufficient progress in capacity storage and a lack of supportive policies, leading to a cooling of market sentiment and a return to fundamental trading logic [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - On September 23, polysilicon futures prices fell to 50,260 yuan/ton, down 2.74%, after briefly dropping below 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the recent price decline is attributed to the lack of policy support and the market's return to fundamental trading [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected polysilicon production for September is over 130,000 tons, while downstream silicon wafer production is around 59 GW, indicating an oversupply situation [2]. - The implementation of production limits and sales restrictions has tightened the supply of polysilicon, but high inventory levels among downstream manufacturers are suppressing purchasing demand [2]. - The fourth quarter's photovoltaic demand is also expected to be weak, influenced by factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates and changes in GST rates in India [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that to maintain a balance in raw material supply and demand, polysilicon companies may need to reduce their operating rates [3]. - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation before the National Day holiday, with ongoing attention required on policy changes and production rates post-holiday [3].