下周重磅日程：又逢中国黄金周，美国政府“闹关门”，非农数据“说不准”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is critical for economic indicators, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, ADP employment data, and PMI figures from both China and the U.S. The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could delay the release of these key economic data points, adding uncertainty to market expectations and Federal Reserve policy decisions [6][12]. Economic Indicators - On September 30, China will release its official manufacturing PMI for September, with the previous month's figure at 49.4. Market attention will focus on whether the index can return to expansion territory, particularly regarding new orders and pricing trends under the "anti-involution" policy [9]. - The U.S. will announce its September ADP employment data on October 1, following a disappointing increase of 5.4 million jobs in August, which was below market expectations [8]. - The ISM manufacturing index for September will also be released on October 1, with the previous month's index at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months. The market will look for signs of improvement in new orders [7]. Government Events - The U.S. federal government is at risk of a shutdown on October 1 if Congress does not pass a temporary spending bill by September 30. The current political deadlock over healthcare spending has raised the likelihood of a shutdown to over 75% [11][12]. - If the government shuts down, it could lead to delays in the release of critical economic data, which may impact GDP growth and Federal Reserve policy decisions [12]. Company News - Yushutech, a leading company in the robotics sector, plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025 [15]. - South Korea has implemented a temporary visa waiver policy for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, which will last until June next year, potentially boosting tourism-related sectors [16]. Market Impact - The upcoming long holiday in China, from October 1 to 8, is expected to drive a surge in domestic travel bookings, indicating a vibrant tourism market during this period [14].