盛松成：对黄金及其未来价格走势的思考

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]