和讯投顾娄鹏：当下资金政策都指向大科技，尤其是自主可控方向

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning rather than simply choosing between being fully invested or avoiding the market during the National Day holiday [1][3] - Historical data from the past decade shows three key trends: first, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to decline before holidays, with a 70% probability of a drop in the last 10 days before the holiday, and a median decline of -1.24% [1] - The second trend indicates a strong likelihood of post-holiday gains, particularly in the technology sector, with over 60% probability of an increase in the week following the holiday for major indices [1] - The third trend highlights that the last three days before the holiday are critical, with a 70% probability of an increase on the last trading day, as remaining funds tend to position for post-holiday performance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, three significant variables are identified: first, substantial investment in large technology sectors, with over 130 billion yuan net inflow into electronics and communications, and a strong focus on technology-related ETFs by foreign capital [2] - The second variable is a clear policy direction supporting technology mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles, solid-state batteries, AI computing power, and robotics [2] - The third variable is robust market trading volume, consistently above 2 trillion yuan, indicating that there is potential for market movement despite recent index fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The recommended strategy for the National Day market is to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on large technology sectors such as chips, semiconductors, AI hardware, and batteries, while avoiding sectors like tourism and entertainment that may not perform well [3] - It is advised to keep a reserve of 3 to 5 layers of capital to manage risks effectively, allowing for flexibility in response to market conditions post-holiday [3] - The approach aims to ensure that if the market rises after the holiday, there is sufficient capital to benefit, while also protecting against potential downturns due to adverse events during the holiday [3]